Copyright © 2002 Richard Seltzer All rights reserved. To
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My
Internet: a Personal View of Internet Business Opportunities
by Richard Seltzer, on CD, includes four books, 162 articles, and 49 newsletter
issues that will inspire you and provide the practical information you
need to build your own personal Web site or Internet-based business, helping
you to become a player in this new business environment.
What's going on?
Tim has dozens of Xbox games, including several other brand new ones that he long anticipated, like House of the Dead III, complete with a gun that you can use instead of the usual controller to blast away at Zombies and other monsters. But for now, at least, the other games are forgotten. Only games that you can play online and chatter away with have any claim on his attention.
Keep in mind that Tim had played online games before. We have Starcraft from Blizzard, which for a couple years has had an online version known as Battlenet. You play on your Internet-connected PC with other players around the world. And interactive online chess has been available for seven years or more. But in those cases, the chatter among players happens in text, by typing (unless you use the phone in parallel and incur long-distance charges), so "talking" gets in the way of playing.
With X-Box Live, the hands-free microphone/earphone headset lets you play and talk. And the voice goes out over the Internet (voice over IP) with no long distance charges for what amounts to a conference call typically among a dozen people scattered across the country. The player doesn't have to do anything special to connect for the conversation -- that happens automatically once you set up the game. And then all you do is talk out loud. It's totally different from anything Tim or I have experienced before.
Actually, when we opened the XBox Live starter kit box on Friday night, we were annoyed and frustrated. There were very few instructions on how to get set up; and there was practically no information about how to connect and get a game going. Our previous online game experience didn't help much. Fortunately, we already had cable-modem Internet service, and already had a router so we could connect two computers at the same time, and an open port to add another; and I even had a spare Ethernet cable long enough to go to the livingroom where the XBox is set up. So we put in the CD that came in the starter kit, and tried to go through the installation instructions we got there. But we soon came to a screeching halt when asked to input the "subscription" number. This isn't just a one-time purchase, like with games. XBox Live is a service that you pay $50 per year for. And the Microsoft marketing folks, in their infinite wisdom, hid the subscription number and gave no clue at all of its location in the starter kit. So I had to call an 800 number, which, to my surprise, was answered within a minute. Then, also to my surprise, it turned out that the person at the other end didn't have and apparently had never seen the starter kit. He, too, didn't know where to find the subscription number. Inside the cardboard case that the starter CD came in, I could see the words "subscription code" with an arrow beside it pointing to the left. But to the left was just silver ink with nothing printed on it. The help person suggested that I take it back to the store and get one with the number printed there. That didn't make much sense since this package had been wrapped in layer after layer of thick plastic packaging. Finally, it dawned on both of us that that silver ink was like the scratch pad on an instant lottery card. I scratched it with a coin and the number appeared. What a way to package a new kind of product! Anyway, with that number, signing on for the service still took another ten minutes, inputting personal information and credit card information that I really didn't want to enter. Finally, we were done; or were we? There was no confirmation that we were connected to anything over the Internet; and we had never entered any network settings.
The starter kit included two demo games, scaled-down versions of games that sell for $50 each. Tim tried the racing game, which worked fine locally as a one-player game; but there was no clear way to set up a game with others. So we weren't even sure that we had completed the setup and were connected. I called the 800 number again, and got another friendly person who really wanted to help but had no clue about the problem I was facing. While I was on the phone with her, Tim tried the second demo, called Whacked. Now he quickly got to an area where you set up games with others. Within less than a minute he was in a game and chattering away on his headset with a huge smile on his face. And as soon as the store opened the next day, we were back to buy his first full-fledged XBox Live game, MechAssault. And we weren't alone. XBox Live was announced on Friday. We never saw any ads for it. We just saw a brief segment about it on CNN and ran out to get it. And by the time we were set up, many thousands of others were also, so connecting with others for an online game was easy and immediate. And as soon as we got MechAssault the next day, thousands were already online playing that as well. And now at 8 on Sunday morning, thousands are connected now too, all not only enjoying the games they are playing, but also getting acquainted, building relationships with one another. Everyone you play with automatically gets added to your "Friends" list, making it easy to get back in touch again and form new games. And you can easily add and delete from Friends, recruiting real-world friends to join you and share experiences in this new world.
So Microsoft made many mistakes in how they packaged this new service and how they explained it to new users, but the service itself is so amazing, so attractive and addictive that any such mistakes will soon be forgotten. Within a few days, this will take off so fast and so far by word of mouth that 800 number calls will decline even as the number of new users increases, because friends will be explaining everything to friends.
What's going on? It's not the game play that has Tim hooked. It's the live interaction and the talk -- natural talk without technology getting in the way -- that makes the difference.
My quick take on this is that it is like the going from silent movies to talkies. The change is immediate, crushing everything that came before.
Keep in mind that XBox Live uses Internet lines, either DSL or cable, the same lines that you use to connect your PC. This is a new and different kind of service, like doing email or instant messaging or Web browsing or listening to Internet radio or watching movies or using P2P services like Kazaa to fetch music or video. Only, unlike those other services, XBox Live doesn't require a computer.
Imagine the implications for cable and DSL ISPs. Expect millions of people to get Internet connections who don't have PCs and may never browse the Web, who simply want to connect their Xboxes. You don't need to type. You don't need to use a mouse. You don't need to know anything at all about computers. And once you get over the hassle of connecting for the first time, everything is ultimately simple and natural.
Keep in mind that to sign up for XBox Live, you not only need to pay for the starter kit, but also need to provide your credit card information, so you can easily buy games online, without having to go back to the store, as well as buy enhanced services, and automatically renew your annual subscription.
Imagine the implications business-wise. Microsoft, with one brilliant stroke, just gained access to millions of homes for online commerce, and at the same time expanded the Internet beyond the PC.
Microsoft doesn't own the Internet. Even with Microsoft dominating the desktop with Windows and the IE browser, millions of little companies do business and flourish over the Internet. But Microsoft does own the XBox, which is opening new business models and promises to generate enormous profits. And everyone who connects using an XBox does so only by way of Microsoft's servers. And this service provides a very addictive experience, the addiction coming not from the technology, but rather from the social experience, people bonding to like-minded people in new ways. And it will probably be a year or more before any competitor has anything comparable to offer.
So cable and DSL ISPs should see their business grow far more rapidly than previously anticipated. And Microsoft should take off to new levels of profitability. And the social relations of people around the world will undergo unpredictable changes as what is now a novelty becomes a natural taken-for-granted part of every day living. Already I'm used to hearing Tim chatter in the background, "Surrender or you'll wind up with a hole in your stomach!"
My
Internet: a Personal View of Internet Business Opportunities
by Richard Seltzer, on CD, includes four books, 162 articles, and 49 newsletter
issues that will inspire you and provide the practical information you
need to build your own personal Web site or Internet-based business, helping
you to become a player in this new business environment.
Web
Business Boot Camp: Hands-on Internet lessons for manager, entrepreneurs,
and professionals by Richard Seltzer (Wiley, 2002).
No-nonsense guide targets activities that anyone can perform to achieve
online business success.
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