Divergence and fragmentation of Internet activities and markets

by Richard Seltzer, seltzer@samizdat.com, www.samizdat.com

Copyright © 2002 Richard Seltzer All rights reserved. To correspond with the author, send email to seltzer@samizdat.com Comments welcome.



This article was heard on the radio program "The Computer Report," which is broadcast live on WOTW 900 AM, Nashua, NH 12-2 PM Sundays.



It was fun being a generalist when the world was converging on the Web. You could make sweeping generalizations about the future of one industry after another, because the business implications of the Web were so clear. The Web would change everything for everybody.  And it was getting easier and easier for everybody to use the Web.

Back in the dark ages before 1993, before the Web, the Internet consisted of a variety of separate applications: ftp and gopher and IRC chat and email. You might know how to use the one but not the others. You might have the software you needed for the one but not the others. And the Web was just one more such application.

Then in rapid succession the Web browser added capabilities, so you could  email with your browser, and do just about everything else with your browser, including things that you had never been able to do before. Some capabilities were added with new releases of browser software. Others were enabled by "plug-ins". Within a few years, the Web browser became your universal tool for accessing resources on the Internet; and for those in the business of providing information and experiences, the Web page became the gateway to everything.

Some companies tried to set up separate, Web-independent services that required you to use special software as an alternative to your Web browser, and tried to keep you isolated from the rest of the Internet while you were engaged in their activities. With the Web, visitors could go elsewhere with a single click or by choosing a bookmark/favorite or by typing in a simple address. And it's only natural for business people to want to "own" their users and customers -- to not make it so easy for them to go elsewhere. But all such efforts were doomed.

Now the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction.

Instant messaging, with its millions of users, runs as a separate application; and which software you choose to use determines which set of people you can connect with.

P2P services, like Kazaa, have proliferated, taking advantage of the millions of users who grew dependent on Napster and got used to its procedures. Each such service operates as a separate entity. They all use the Internet, but they operate independently of one another and of Web-based activities. You can't participate by  simply going to a Web address. Rather you need to download separate software. And while you are engaged in their activities, you can't suddenly with a click switch over to a competitor.

Wireless and cell phone devices can give you access to the Web, but only to a subset of what's there, because of limitations of the tiny screens and because of your limited input ability (not having a mouse or keyboard). So large Web publishers provide special presentations of their content intended for such devices and make special deals with wireless and cell phone providers so their content will be on the menu and easy for such users to access. And, at the same time, new kinds of people-to-people experiences, like text messaging, are opening up through handheld gadgets that aren't possible through ordinary PCs.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of people now have high speed -- cable and DSL -- Internet access. And in response, an increasing number of sites are catering to those users, presenting content and experiences that require high speed. In other words, while a few years ago, successful Web sites typically went out of their way to make their content accessible by everybody, regardless of their access speed; today the formula for success often includes focusing on a particular market segment, and ignoring everyone else.

Now, too, we see Microsoft expanding the reach of the Internet beyond the PC with its X-Box Live service. Everybody who uses their game system to play games with remote players is in fact using the Internet for voice over IP as well as for the game commands, but probably without knowing that the Internet is involved. You need the X-Box, and an Ethernet cable connecting you to a high-speed Internet service. But once you are set up, you don't need a computer and don't need to know anything about the Internet. You just play. And if you want to buy related products and services while you are connected, you can buy them from Microsoft and only Microsoft. They appear to have created a separate, proprietary service that runs over the Internet but that gives them complete ownership of the user/customer. And others are sure to try to imiate their success with new separate Internet-based services.

A few years ago, it was relatively easy to keep up with what was possible on the Internet -- you could quickly sample it all with your browser. Now new realms of experience can open up and involve millions of people without your having a clue that it's going on; or requiring you to spend money on new hardware and software to sample it.

Just as we were getting used to a global ocean, where all had equal fishing rights, now we see the creation of massive lakes where the fishing might be far better than in the ocean, but where you might have to pay to participate, if you can participate at all.

So now, as a user, it's tempting to fall back, to contract instead of expand. The multiplicity of possibilities forces you to pick and choose, to decide what you want and need and simply ignore all these other activities. Maybe one or two lakes have all that you want.

And as a business person, you should go out of your way to sample the new possibilities, the new experiences, the new communities of users. Because now instead of one Internet business environment, you are now faced with a dozen or more separate opportunities. And you need to consider which of these opportunities you should pursue and how you might be able to adapt your product or service to meet the unique needs of these alternate markets.



Other articles about Internet business trends
Other articles about Internet marketing
Other articles about online shopping/selling
 

My Internet: a Personal View of Internet Business Opportunities by Richard Seltzer, on CD, includes four books, 162 articles, and 49 newsletter issues that will inspire you and provide the practical information you need to build your own personal Web site or Internet-based business, helping you to become a player in this new business environment.

Web Business Boot Camp: Hands-on Internet lessons for manager, entrepreneurs, and professionals by Richard Seltzer (Wiley, 2002). No-nonsense guide targets activities that anyone can perform to achieve online business success. Reviews.

This site is Published by B&R Samizdat Express, 33 Gould St., West Roxbury, MA 02132. (617) 469-2269. seltzer@samizdat.com


Return to B&R Samizdat Express


<


Internet Business Showcase: