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Copyright 1995 Richard Seltzer
This is chapter four of a book entitled The Way of the Web. Permission is granted to make and distribute complete verbatim electronic copies of this item for non-commercial purposes provided the copyright information and this permission notice are preserved on all copies. All other rights reserved. To correspond with the author, send email to seltzer@samizdat.com Comments welcome.
My Internet: a Personal View of Internet Business Opportunities (B&R Samizdat Express, 2002), on CD ROM, includes the full text of this book plus Take Charge of Your Web Site, Shop Online the Lazy Way, The Social Web, and hundreds of related articles. It is available from our online store http://store.yahoo.com/samizdat/myinperviewo.html
How to translate this article into French, Spanish, Italian, Portuguese, or GermanComment traduire en français, Cómo traducir a los españoles, Come tradurre in italiano, Como traduzir em portuguêses, Wie man in Deutschen übersetzt.
And even those fortunate ones had problems. Typical modem speeds were 9600 baud, which made it virtually impossible to use the Web -- it simply took too long to access a page. Even with more expensive 14.4 baud modems, the NCSA Mosaic browser (which was then the standard of excellence) often timed out and crashed. And while you could spend hundreds of dollars for a 28.8 baud modem, then you'd have a very hard time finding an access provider that you could connect to at that speed.
Speed was the main issue. Regardless of how great the resources on the Internet were, large numbers of people would not be willing to wait five or ten minutes to load a page. The novelty would wear off very quickly. Sure the business-to-business market could still grow, but without the home market, demand for this potentially great technology would be relatively limited.
If you really wanted to do the Web at home, because you wanted to build a business around it or because you enjoyed playing with high-tech toys, you needed to consider the much more expensive alternatives that were designed for businesses -- paying a premium price to your phone company for a high-speed dedicated phone line or special digital (ISDN) service, if that was offered in your area. Then you'd need to buy additional hardware and/or software to use your new connection the way you wanted to and would need to deal with an Internet service provider whose business was serving businesses rather than individuals. Outside the U.S., the situation was even worse, with far fewer alternatives and much higher prices.
The most promising alternative on the horizon was home access to the Internet by way of cable TV services. Digital Equipment Corporation and its partner LANcity had demonstrated the ability to use cable lines to build very high speed Ethernet local area networks. Interesting experiments were underway to use this technology to link together businesses and schools in areas such as Phoenix, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and to provide home Internet access to individuals in Southern New Hampshire and Cambridge, Massachusetts. But, for the most part, cable companies didn't understand the Internet business, and it looked like it would be a long time before this capability would be widely available.
Much has changed since that time. Faster modems are much cheaper. Internet access providers are everywhere. (By the August 1995, there were over 1000 of them.) They keep lowering their prices, adding more local dial-in numbers and more that can handle fast connections, and sweetening their offers in other ways. Major on-line services (such as America Online) are offering full Internet service. Major telecom companies like MCI are getting into the act. Microsoft is offering its own on-line service, which includes Internet access and which users of Windows95 can connect to by simply clicking on an icon. Telephone companies are offering ISDN service and fast lines to the home in more areas and at lower cost, and Internet access providers are offering services to accommodate individuals with those kinds of connections.
All of those changes were due to business decisions, rather than technology advances. It wasn't too hard to predict this general direction. Increasing demand would lead to higher volumes, which would lead to lower prices, which would fuel higher demand and even higher volume and even lower prices. Then the big players would make their entrance and the game would get really interesting, with an ever wider range of choices on ever more attractive terms. But no one could say how long it would take, or even if it would reach really high volume before some competing technology, like interactive TV, locked in the market for information delivery to the home.
But in the fall of 1994 an advance in technology suddenly changed the frame of reference, and moved the whole Internet business process forward by probably at least a year -- opening home access and related commercial opportunities far sooner than anyone was predicting. The Netscape Navigator (originally code named "Mozilla") made all the difference.
The company Netscape Communications had been formed that spring by Jim Clarke, one of the founders of the computer company SGI. He hired Mark Andreesen and other engineers from the National Center for Supercomputer Applications (NCSA), where they had designed the Mosaic browser, which was then the prevailing standard. These engineers started over again from scratch, benefiting from what they had learned the first time around, and including features that they now knew were possible.
The result was a beta-version of a new Web browser which, in most circumstances, with a 14.4 baud modem performed about six times faster than Mosaic. Running Mozilla (version 0.9) from home over ordinary phone lines, with an ordinary SLIP or PPP account, you could get the same kind of performance that previously had only been available over a high-speed company or institutional network.
And the business plan was just as astonishing and far-sighted as the technology. Any individual already on the Internet could simply download the software and use it immediately, without having to pay for it. (Companies that wanted to use it for business purposes had to pay a license fee.)
At that time, Microsoft was planning to release Windows 95, with the Microsoft Network, in the spring of 1995. The Netscape plan was to distribute as many copies of their browser as possible -- at least five million of them -- by the time Windows 95 came out. That would give them significant market presence and clout, allowing them to compete in a much broader and more mature marketplace.
Spontaneously -- without Netscape having to pay for the publicity -- many of the best Web sites recommended the Netscape browser on their home page, and some even provided hypertext links to sites for downloading it. The managers of these sites recognized that this new browser made their site look and feel much better to the ordinary user. It also provided the user side of what promised to be a simple and secure way to do credit card transactions on-line. Hence it was in the best interest of Web site owners to do everything they could to help promote its adoption. Within a few weeks of when it was first made available, Netscape's browser had become the new de facto standard.
They surpassed five million by spring, while the Windows 95 introduction slipped to August. By then they were shipping a much improved version (1.1) which included a number of features, like tables, which made it easier for Webmasters to design pages with the look and feel they wanted to convey -- features that were still not available in other Web browsers. By stepping beyond the realm of accepted standards for Web page design, Netscape was taking another risk. Pages that included these new features could only be viewed with their browser. That might mean that page designers would avoid them so their pages could be seen by the widest possible audience, or the marketplace could fragment with various browsers including mutually unintelligible non-standard features. Instead, major sites quickly adopted the new features and recommended the new version of the Netscape browser for best viewing; and some provided two complete versions of their sites -- with the version they were most proud of designed for Netscape's 1.1.
Meanwhile, the company started to roll out its line of commercial products, in particular its Web server software, which competed with freeware from NCSA and CERN, and which sold for thousands of dollars. This software was "commercial grade" -- intended for demanding, no-fail use by companies that wanted to do serious business on the Internet, as opposed to the looser, do-it-yourself use by research and educational institutions, which could make do with the freeware. And one version of their Web server was intended to interact with the Netscape browser to enable secure on-line credit card transactions.
While the browser is still available for free downloading, they are selling many copies of the same software in stores to people who do not yet have Internet connections or who appreciate an easy-to-install kit and related support.
So rather than wait for agreement on a standard, Netscape set the standard themselves -- twice -- by filling needs before the competition (both commercial and non-commercial) and by giving away the browser for free to individuals. And the give-away program not only helped establish their approach as the standard, but also gave them an enormous audience to which they could readily market further products and services, taking full advantage of the promotional power of the Internet. Built into the browser software were a set of buttons that immediately connected the user with Netscape's Web site for on-line help files, Internet directories and search engines, and product and service information. Hence the Netscape Web site is probably the most active site on the Internet today, with millions of users every day -- probably two to three times as many users as Yahoo. They could build a variety of profitable businesses around this audience.
And the existence of that same large installed base of browser users makes their commercial Web server software -- particularly the credit card version -- very attractive.
This is a fast-moving marketplace, and competitors, like Spyglass, which licenses Mosaic technology from NCSA, now offer browsers that are probably as fast as Netscape's and have some features that Netscape doesn't yet provide. You can expect that half a dozen or more such companies will keep leap-frogging one another, improving the performance and expanding the capabilities of Web browsers. But Netscape was definitely the company that blew this market wide open.
Much of the traffic on many of the channels consists of adolescent one-line messages -- a free-for-all that's often flirtatious and sometimes obscene. It's a popular way for college and high school students to interact with one another. Users can choose any name they please and change that name the next time they connect. Some enjoy taking on a new on-line persona and identity -- like going to a masquerade party or engaging in role-play games -- and maintain one or more alter egos for extended periods of time. Others relish the uninhibited freedom of expression that comes from anonymity.
Other channels focus around specific topics of timely interest, such as controversial current events issues or new technology, or serve as a link for people with common culture and language who happen to be scattered at universities around the world (such as students from Malaysia).
Most of these channels are open to everyone. But it is possible to set up a closed, members-only channel to hold a serious meeting on-line. Researchers sometimes use this capability. (Apparently, that's what it was originally designed for.) But it's a very techie, user-unfriendly environment, and has little or no security attached.
Now Netscape and other companies are working on ways to adapt this capability for a business environment to fill the need for live interaction among groups of people. It will be interesting to see how that evolves.
The Internet Phone, which caught the world by surprise in the winter of 1994-95 was an adaption of that basic chat capability, which lets people interact with voice rather than typed words. As a side-effect, this product lets you make free long-distance phone calls through your Internet account. It doesn't matter where in the world the parties are -- it could be Peking talking to New York -- or how long you talk, you pay no more than you normally pay for Internet access, (which today in the Boston area amounts to less than 30 cents an hour). You can even set up conference calls.
To use this software product developed by VocalTec, a small company in Israel, you need an Internet account and a PC with a sound card, speakers, and a microphone. And all parties involved in the call need that same kind of set up. I installed the software myself a few months ago. You can download the trial software from their Web site. If you like it in evaluation mode (limited to one-minute long conversations), you can pay for a license that unlocks it for unlimited use. (I did so almost immediately -- this was the first time I bought anything by credit card over the Internet, using the secure Netscape browser).
When you start, you connect to one of several servers that are set up like IRC chat. That means you can readily find other people who want to talk. I had my first chats with people in England and in Montreal. It has the feel of ham radio, only far simpler. (Only one person can talk at a time.) It's easy to imagine how this could be used to connect classrooms in different countries for social studies and current events or foreign language practice. And, of course, any company with remote offices and high long-distance phone bills could benefit from this application immediately.
NetPhone from Electric Magic Company apparently provides similar capabilities for Macintosh users.
Applications such as these -- carrying live voice over Internet lines -- put heavy demands on the existing infrastructure. They raise the ante in terms of capabilities users need and expect in their basic desktop computer systems, and also in terms of the quality and speed of service they expect from their Internet access providers. And at the same time they challenge the long-standing business practices and pricing models of the world's telephone companies.
Then a startup company called RealAudio made it possible to "view" audio files in real-time. In other words, as soon as you click on a hypertext link you begin to hear the recorded sound.
For this to work, the Web site needs to use server software and authoring software sold by RealAudio; and the user needs to have a sound card and speakers and also the "viewer" software, which can be downloaded for free and which works with standard Web browsers.
The sound quality -- which is sure to improve -- is already adequate for many applications. It's not yet good enough to satisfy music connoisseurs, but that hasn't stopped some small bands from beginning to use this capability to by-pass record companies and radio stations let the world know that they exist.
In theory one could use this capability to set up the equivalent an entire radio station, without having to go through the normal government regulatory process. In this case nothing would be broadcast, and radio receivers would be useless. Only those users who connected to the Web site would hear anything. And the whole format would be different -- based on space, rather than time. Programming elements -- such as news, talk, and music -- would be listed as hypertext links. They could stay available for as long or short a time as the station manager wanted. And advertising could be included in the programming, if the audience were willing to put up with it.
I understand but have not yet experienced myself, that hypertext links can be embedded in the audio stream. In other words, you could see images and text in synch with the audio file, which presents interesting opportunities for creative programming and advertising.
This is a technology that stimulates the imagination and leads to applications the original designers may never have dreamt of. Already at least one company is using RealAudio to provide sound effects for an on-line interactive multi-player strategy game -- Stellar Crisis. (By the way, such games are becoming a popular way to attract users to a Web site and to advertise the capabilities of Internet service and consulting companies.)
I'd love to see this used for a revival of radio drama and to provide information services for the blind. I'd also like to see it combined with live audio capabilities like Internet Phone and with on-line forum capabilities like WebForum so people could interact with one another with voice and their input be stored as threaded discussions for retrieval by other users at other times.
And this is just the beginning. Stored video and audio capabilities will be improving and new interesting content will become available. And as live video and audio and 3D graphics get rolling I'm soon going to need the storage equivalent of the Library of Congress just to satisfy my personal day-to-day needs. (It's amazing how fast a leading-edge luxury can become a necessity).
So still wondering how I could possibly cope for the long run, I was reluctantly ready to upgrade to a one gigabyte hard drive and went to my local Egghead Software store to check out models and prices. To my surprise and delight, the sales people introduced me to the recently released ZIP drive from Iomega.
The ZIP drive is an add-on for your PC or Macintosh, which accepts 100 Mbytes diskettes. I have the PC/parallel port version which plugs right into the printer port, and can be readily moved from machine to machine. This makes it easy to store and move large files and programs (bigger than the 1.4 Mbyte capacity of a high-density 3-1/2" diskettes) The product has only been available since March 1995.
I'm using my ZIP drive to write this book. On a single disk I can hold all my background information, notes, sample Web pages, years of Internet-related memos and correspondence, all my files related to my own little Internet business, and dozens of drafts of this manuscript. I can use it with my desktop system at home, or I can pack it up with my laptop when I go to the Cape for vacation (which is where I am now).
It's being marketed as an alternative to a hard disk upgrade, as a way to back up your hard disk, and as a way to store large files (such as the video, audio, and images you can retrieve from the Internet)
I see it more as the equivalent of a writeable CD ROM, which would be particularly useful if you only need to make a few copies (rather than hundreds) or want to make copies on demand, or where the user would periodically download updates from the Internet. This capability could also be the basis for interactive multi-media games on the Internet which require large writeable local storage.
Already Iomega has announced Jazz drive, which will be available in the fall of 1995 and will use removable disks with 1 gigabyte capacity. And I can easily see upgrading to that new drive and using many of those disks. In a year or two, to heavy Internet users, gigabytes will seem like what megabytes are to us today. (And that's a thousand fold increase).
I suspect that removable disks such as these will soon become media for distribution of information and software. In other words, the disk you buy will not be blank -- it will come with lots of material already on it that you can choose to use or erase. This will be reference material, marketing material, complete catalogs, etc. The disk drive makers will use free content as a market differentiator and will also sell space on their disks (like ads on commercial videotapes). In some cases these disks could replace current CD ROM applications. (Current CD ROMs have a space limit of about 500 Mbytes, and significant increases to that capacity would probably require users to buy new CD ROM drives.)
The availability of such storage devices at reasonable prices is sure to inspire a variety of creative Internet-related applications as well. Already a number of firms are experimenting with mixed media, where CD ROMs are used in conjunction with Web pages. Such applications could be even more interesting with writeable, removable disks, such as those from Iomega. It is possible to include a Web browser on a CD ROM or disk and use the html format for the files so users can navigate through the local files just as they do on the Internet. That capability opens the opportunity to put large graphics, video, and audio files on CD ROM or disk, and use the Internet to access updates and the latest information. For instance, the CD ROM/disk which one buys could have the basic structure and storage-intensive elements of a catalog, interactive book, interactive video experience, or interactive game, and a free Web site could provide added content. That way the content provider has a tangible information/entertainment product to sell and yet can take full advantage of the Internet to provide extensions, enhancements, and updates, and to enable groups of customers to jointly participate in the same experience.
For example, a disk could include the basic structure of a multi-player game, along with graphics for scenery, objects, and characters. Players at remote sites could relate to one another through a Web site, with their "moves" and other decisions sending update messages to each of their computers, which lead to the appropriate manipulations of these scenes, objects, and characters on the screen. If users have writeable disks, the content provider could periodically add new graphic elements and even new game logic that users could download for use in future games.
Such an environment could also be used to distribute follow-ons to popular single-player videogames like Myst. If the initial game were designed this way, the makers could -- for a price -- make available on the Web additional graphics and code that takes advantage of many of the elements on the original disk to open new related worlds and experiences. Such extensions could conceivably be added to indefinitely, building on the audience the initial game attracted and providing them ever-more imaginative involvement. Hence what was a market for discrete products -- a one-shot market, with sequels coming months or even years later and as discrete products -- could become a series of experiences that grows and evolves, with the continuity of a prime-time television series or soap opera.
And such long-term involving experiences could form the basis for on-line communities and could anchor stable and profitable Website businesses.
One approach, known as Mbone, requires a fast UNIX workstation with an extremely fast connection to other UNIX systems. As was true for electronic mail in the early days of the Internet, system managers have to voluntarily agree to forward the signals for the benefit of all. And end users need special hardware and software as well as information on what address to connect to and when and what settings to use. Events such as a live Rolling Stones concert captured the attention of the press and fueled public expectation that a mass-market version of live video would soon be available over the Internet. Indeed, business use of Mbone technology appears to be growing -- as a way to deliver business meetings and conferences to remote audiences gathered in special facilities set up for reception. Sometime soon this might become a viable alternative to current corporate video networks for training and communication events.
But another technology, CUSeeMe, originally designed for the Macintosh, looks like it could penetrate the home market. A number of schools use this technology already and large-scale demonstrations, such as a live broadcast from the space shuttle, have tended to be education-oriented. The image resolution is nowhere near the quality of broadcast television, and today you need a video card and a Macintosh to receive the signals. But a version for Windows PCs is reportedly in the works. And standard popular PC configurations are getting increasingly complex and powerful. It seems reasonable to expect that systems that include not only video cards, but also video cameras (built into the monitor) will be fairly common within a year or two. Demand for access to live video over the Internet could fuel demand for such systems and speed the advance to higher volumes and lower prices. And the availability of such systems could fuel widespread creative use of this technology.
Eventually, just as today everyone can be a publisher on the Internet,
everyone should be able to be the Internet equivalent of a video broadcaster.
It's easy to imagine classes in different countries using this technology
as primitive videoconferencing, for sharing experiences with one another.
It's also easy to imagine this approach providing video telephone service,
and becoming the basis of a wide variety of businesses, such as a video
version of today's 900 number sex-talk telephone lines.
The rest of the Way of the Web
This site is published by B&R Samizdat Express, 33 Gould St., West Roxbury, MA 02132. 617-469-2269 seltzer@samizdat.com
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